PayPal’s Q2 2026 Earnings: Stripe‑Advent Bid, EPS Decline and Analyst Skepticism

PayPal Holdings Inc. (PYPL) is set to release its Q2 2026 financial results before the market opens on Tuesday, July 28.

Stripe‑Advent joint bid revives exit speculation

■On July 15, Stripe and Advent International filed a $53 billion joint offer valuing PayPal at $60.50 per share, a %28 premium over the pre‑announcement price.

■The news sent PYPL shares up %17 the same day, rekindling takeover hopes.

■Some analysts argue the offer undervalues PayPal’s long‑term growth trajectory.

Earnings expectations: EPS dip versus recent outperformance

■Analysts forecast adjusted EPS of $1.28 for Q2 2026, down %8.6 from $1.40 in the year‑ago quarter.

■In three of the last four quarters PayPal beat Wall Street estimates; it missed only once.

■This track record of outperformance contrasts with the near‑term EPS downgrade, signalling short‑term pressure.

Fiscal 2026‑2027 outlook and longer‑term growth

■For fiscal 2026, EPS is projected at $5.32, a modest rise from fiscal 2025.

■Fiscal 2027 EPS is seen at $5.76, implying a %8.3 year‑over‑year increase.

■These forecasts suggest that, despite near‑term EPS weakness, medium‑term earnings momentum remains intact.

Share performance and analyst consensus

■Over the past 52 weeks PYPL has fallen %23.4, lagging the S&P 500’s %18.4 gain and the XLF ETF’s %7.1 rise.

■After the July 15 %17 spike, the stock trades above the mean price target of $49.91.

■The Street‑high target sits at $65, offering %14.9 upside from current levels.

■Among 45 covering analysts: 5 Strong Buy, 2 Moderate Buy, 33 Hold, 1 Moderate Sell, 4 Strong Sell; overall rating “Hold”.

Risk factors and supply‑demand dynamics

■While the Stripe‑Advent bid provides an exit premium, doubts persist about PayPal’s long‑term growth prospects.

■The EPS decline versus recent beat‑record creates near‑term volatility risk.

■Even though the stock exceeds the average target, the limited upside to the Street‑high and a majority “Hold” stance keep aggressive buying in check.

Bora Yalın: Although PayPal’s near‑term EPS guidance is subdued, the Stripe‑Advent exit scenario and the projected %8.3 YoY EPS growth for fiscal 2027 offer meaningful support to liquidity. Yet the analyst consensus tilted toward “Hold” and the stock’s 52‑week underperformance temper short‑term bullish signals. Portfolio managers may consider a selective position that balances exit‑risk premium with the longer‑term growth narrative.