Turkish Real Estate Sales Drop 10.3% in H1 2025: 1.268M Units Sold

Real estate sales across Turkey declined 10.3% year-on-year in the first half of 2025, reaching 1,268,950 units. This downturn reflects mounting uncertainty in demand-supply dynamics, driven by persistent inflation, rising interest rates, and tightened credit conditions. While urban centers face pricing rigidity, investors continue capital flows despite rate hikes. The Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey (CBRT) may recalibrate policies amid sectoral headwinds. Meanwhile, Credit and Enforcement Office tax revenues mirror similar trends. Market participants anticipate policy flexibility to stabilize demand, with investors monitoring Borsa Istanbul real estate funds.

The Unraveling of Demand Dynamics

■Annual decline of 10.3% marks the sharpest drop since 2023, with Istanbul and Ankara leading regional contractions (-15.7%).

■Credit access restrictions delay home purchases among younger demographics.

■Developers like Enplus Group and Varyap revise sales targets amid subdued demand.

Subtle Shifts in Supply-Demand Equilibrium

■Consumer inflation at 68.2% curtails buyer purchasing power, particularly in lower-income segments.

■CBRT rate decisions dampen investor confidence in real estate assets.

■Government housing aid packages could revive sales in H2, though eligibility criteria remain unclear.

■Increased use of real estate certificates (GİYAS) signals preference for institutional-grade products.

Seda Çetin Note: This sales slump reverberates through Turkey's dividend market, with HFT algorithms amplifying volatility in TRY/MXN and TRY/ZAR pairs. Markets eye potential rate cuts to offset demand risks.