Commerzbank Silver Forecast: How Prices May Shape in 2024

Commerzbank forecasts that silver will reach $28 per ounce by the end of 2024, signaling a continued upward trend in the metal market.

Global Demand and Inflation Dynamics

Silver occupies a unique position, serving both industrial and investment demand. In the last quarter, global industrial demand rose by 4.2% and persistent inflationary pressures are supporting price gains.

■Industrial demand: Up 5.1% in electronics, renewable energy, and medical devices.

■Investment demand: Physical silver funds recorded net inflows of 12.3%.

■Inflation expectations: US CPI remains at an annual 3.6%, making silver an attractive inflation hedge.

Commerzbank's Methodology and Outlook

The bank’s projection rests on three pillars: (i) geopolitical risks constraining metal supply, (ii) a weakening US dollar, and (iii) stable interest rates.

■Supply constraints: Mining output could decline by 2.8%.

■Currency impact: USD/EUR pair expected to weaken by 1.4%.

■Interest rate environment: Anticipated 0.25% Fed policy rate hike reduces the cost of carry for silver.

Strategic Takeaways for Investors

Long‑term, value‑focused portfolio managers should consider positioning silver as both a protective and growth asset.

■Portfolio diversification: Allocate 5‑10% to silver‑focused ETFs.

■Risk management: Physical silver purchases mitigate liquidity risk.

■Dividend and buyback perspective: Mining firms often deliver 8‑10% dividend yields and maintain regular share‑repurchase programs.

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Aylin Güneş
Corporate Portfolio Management Strategist – Specialist in dividend and buyback‑driven long‑term value investing