Michael Burry'den Pişmanlık Uyarısı: Yapay Zeka Harcamaları S&P 500'ü Yönlendiriyor, Apple Kazanıyor

Famous investor Michael Burry, known for his accurate predictions during the 2008 crisis, has once again targeted the technology sector, signaling that the endless enthusiasm for artificial intelligence investments may be reaching a breaking point. In his latest post on X, Burry argued that the market has delivered its verdict, highlighting a striking divergence between massive capital expenditures and stock performance within the S&P 500.

Trilyon Dolarlık Yatırımların Borsadaki Yansıması

Charts shared by Burry, based on Bloomberg data, reveal a negative correlation between the forward capital expenditure (capex) estimates of major technology companies and their recent stock performances. This situation suggests that the strategy of "spending more to grow more" is currently being penalized by investors.

■Nvidia, Microsoft, Amazon, Alphabet ve Meta — five of the companies comprising the "Magnificent Seven" — have all seen their valuations fall below their 10-year averages as of July 24.

■The data indicates that investors are increasingly skeptical about the return on these massive infrastructure investments.

■The S&P 500 is feeling the weight of these tech giants, where the correlation between spending and stock value has reversed.

Apple'ın Temkinli Yaklaşımı Fark Yaratıyor

While other tech giants pour billions into AI infrastructure, Apple stands out as the notable exception with its relatively restrained spending strategy. This conservative approach appears to be rewarding the company with superior valuation metrics.

■Apple is the only company among the major tech groups to maintain a valuation above its 10-year average.

■In the performance charts analyzed by Burry, Apple appears as a clear outlier, distancing itself from the negative trend affecting its peers.

■This divergence suggests that the market may currently favor profitability and disciplined capital allocation over aggressive expansion.

Operasyonel Maliyetler ve Enerji Krizi Riski

The skepticism surrounding AI investments is not limited to stock market charts; structural issues regarding the sustainability of these expenditures are beginning to emerge. Increasing costs and infrastructure challenges are forcing companies to reconsider their strategies.

■The cost of AI tokens is rising as providers pass on their operational expenses to customers, leading companies to reduce usage.

■Reports suggest that AI is not delivering the expected efficiency in reducing workloads, causing a reassessment of its utility.

■Consumer Reports findings highlight that data centers are driving up electricity prices for nearby residents and causing ecological concerns, potentially leading to regulatory and social pushback.

Piyasalar, beklenti fiyakasının gerisinde kalan operasyonel gerçekleri fiyatlama aşamasına geçiyor. Avrupa ve ABD piyasalarındaki sermaye dağılımında, sürdürülebilir büyüme ve enerji verimliliği ön plana çıkıyor. Apple'ın bu performansı, yatırımcıların artık sadece büyüme hikayelerine değil, sermaye verimliliğine (ROIC) odaklandığının güçlü bir sinyalini veriyor. Bu durum, teknoloji harcamalarının makroekonomik etkileri ve küresel ticaret savaşlarında tedarik zinciri riskleri açısından yakından izlenmeli.