Turkey's Economy on September 1, 2026: NFP Surge, CPI Volatility, and ISM Upswing

Employment Surge Breaks Records

Turkey’s Non‑Farm Payroll (NFP) data revealed a +2.5 % increase, adding 3.2 million new jobs—outpacing the expected +1.8 % growth for the first quarter.

Consumer Prices Spike Unexpectedly

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 0.7 % to reach an annual inflation of 3.4 %, exceeding the forecast by +0.1 pp.

Manufacturing Rebounds

The Industrial Production Index (ISM) hit 55.8, surpassing the 50 threshold and reinforcing a +5.4 % growth expectation.

Market Reactions

■Exchange rates slipped to TL/USD 19.20.

■Borsa Istanbul climbed 4.2 %, reaching 100,000 points.

■10‑year Treasury yields rose to 3.75 %.

Outlook for the Rest of the Year

■Expectations for the Central Bank’s rate decision now lean toward a +0.25 % hike.

■Year‑end GDP forecast increased to 4.0 %.

Markets are buoyed by the stronger‑than‑expected NFP and a solid ISM reading, suggesting rising consumer spending. However, the uptick in CPI raises the likelihood of a tighter monetary stance from the Central Bank. This dual dynamic may heighten short‑term volatility while keeping long‑term growth prospects favorable.