AK Party's New Constitution Referendum: Political Restructuring or Economic Risk?

AK Party Vice Chairman Hayati Yazıcı signaled a new era in Turkey's political landscape during his speech at the Western Black Sea Region Meeting in Bolu Abant, stating that the new constitution will be submitted to a referendum for public approval. Yazıcı emphasized that the 1961 and 1982 constitutions were 'made by coup supporters,' and that these constitutions, after 19 amendments, have become a 'patchwork bag.' He criticized the implementation of the Presidential Government System following the July 15 coup attempt, arguing that it has negatively transformed the constitutional framework. Yazıcı outlined plans to achieve consensus in Parliament and subsequently seek public approval for the new constitution through a referendum.

Constitutional Shift and Economic Implications

■The new constitution process may influence banking indicators such as SYR (Seyahat Yeterlilik Rasyoları) and NIM (Net İşlem Marjları), potentially increasing or decreasing investor confidence.

■The Presidential Government System, criticized for its impact on fiscal discipline and political stability, could reshape Turkey's risk profile in global markets.

■The referendum process might erode confidence in Turkey’s external debt and foreign exchange reserves, particularly among international investors.

■Low-interest policies and digital payment innovations, key fintech trends, may gain further traction under the new constitutional framework.

Rüzgar Ersoy's Analysis: The constitutional referendum represents a critical juncture for Turkey's banking sector. Rising SYR rates and declining NIM could reflect the new political order's fiscal discipline. Will fintech digital transformation processes accelerate amid this uncertainty? Market decisions will hinge not only on political stability but also on economic resilience.