Gold Surges 3-Week Momentum, Shakes Dollar

Gold has delivered a 3.2 % rally over the past three weeks, capturing investors’ attention.

Momentum Surge: Gold’s Three‑Week Upswing

■A 3.2 % climb, aligned with the dollar’s decline below $1,950.

■Investors turned to gold as expectations of a Fed rate hike softened.

Fed Outlook Shift

■Pre‑meeting projections removed the 25‑basis‑point hike scenario.

■Economic data, with unemployment at 3.8 %, bolstered a soft‑landing narrative.

Dollar Weakness and Treasury Interventions

■Treasury market actions dropped 10‑year yields to 1.5 %.

■Dollar weakness paved the way for gold to surpass $1,950 and reach $1,970.

Technical Signals: Fibonacci & Ichimoku

■Fibonacci retracement at 61.8 % near $1,920 signals a potential breakout.

■Ichimoku cloud places the short‑term resistance at $1,950.

■Moving averages show bullish bias on the 50‑day and 200‑day lines.

Market Implications

■Gold’s rise lifts the dollar’s pressure while nudging the CPI up slightly.

■Investors continue to see gold as a safe‑haven amid risk‑off sentiment.

Outlook for the Coming Weeks

■The likelihood of a 25‑basis‑point Fed hike in the next meeting is about 30 %.

■If the dollar weakens further, gold could exceed $1,980.

■Technical analysis hints at a possible re‑test of $1,920 in the short term.

Gold is playing a balanced game between long‑term risk‑off flows and dollar weakness. Investors should closely monitor the Fed’s decisions and keep an eye on key technical levels. In this environment, there’s a solid foundation for gold to push beyond $1,950 in the near term.