Bitcoin Braces for Volatile Monthly Close Amid 20‑Year Bond Yield Surge

Bitcoin is gearing up for a volatile monthly close as U.S. Treasury yields edge toward a 20‑year high.

Bond Market Turbulence Meets Crypto Resilience

The U.S. 10‑year Treasury yield has climbed to 4.76%, while the 30‑year yield sits at 5.269%, the highest since 2007. This macro shock has pinned Bitcoin around $78,000, with a 1% intraday rebound.

Scott Bessent’s Stance and Market Implications

U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent told CNBC he has not yet purchased any long‑dated bonds, stating, “I haven’t bought anything yet,” and that he is “fine” with yields rebounding where they are. This restrained approach tempers the impact of the Treasury’s decision to double its debt‑buyback program to $4 billion.

Technical Cross‑Check: 50‑Week EMA vs. RSI Divergence

Bitcoin is holding above its 50‑week Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at $77,269, while the daily RSI sits at 70.7, deep in overbought territory. Analyst Rekt Capital warns that a series of lower highs in the daily RSI could signal waning momentum.

Tactical Takeaways and Risk Management

■Short‑term volatility: A 1% daily gain highlights price sensitivity to bond‑yield fluctuations.

■Support/Resistance: The 50‑week EMA ($77,269) is a pivotal support level; a break could trigger a deeper pullback.

■Overbought alert: RSI above 70 signals potential reversal risk.

■Macro backdrop: The Treasury’s buy‑back expansion and Bessent’s hands‑off posture keep bond‑market uncertainty alive, positioning Bitcoin as a tentative safe‑haven play.

Berk Arıcan – Bitcoin’s current price reflects the lingering uncertainty in the bond market. The rise in 10‑year and 30‑year yields is inflating the risk premium on crypto assets. Overbought momentum indicators and the test of the 50‑week EMA suggest a near‑term correction is plausible. Portfolio managers should trim exposure, tighten position sizing, and hedge with traditional safe assets such as gold and low‑beta equities.