Geopolitical Risks Weigh on BIST 100: Market Decline and Current Account Signals

The BIST 100 index closed the day in negative territory, overshadowed by escalating US-Iran tensions and regional uncertainties that dampened global risk appetite, prompting investors to seek safe havens and realize profits.

Sectoral Divergence and Volume Dynamics

Despite general selling pressure in the market, trading volume remained robust, revealing a mixed picture across sector indices:

■The BIST 100 index decreased by 229.17 points compared to the previous close, diverging negatively.

■Total transaction volume reached 158.7 billion lira.

■The information technology index was the top gainer with 1.86%, while the financial leasing and factoring index plummeted by 9.41%.

■The banking index lost 1.83%, and the holding index declined by 0.30%.

Strait of Hormuz and Global Energy Supply Anxiety

Risk sentiment in global markets deteriorated due to rising geopolitical tensions between the US and Iran and uncertainties regarding shipping traffic in the Strait of Hormuz. The increasing risk of retaliatory attacks between the two nations triggered concerns over global energy supply security, negatively impacting stock markets through commodity prices.

Structural Signals in the Current Account

May's current account figures, released on the domestic data agenda, once again highlighted the resilience of the economy's external balance:

■Turkey's current account recorded a deficit of $1.459 billion in May.

■Excluding energy and gold, the current account posted a strong surplus of $3.626 billion.

Analysts note that technically, the 14,100 and 14,250 levels will act as resistance, while 14,000 and 13,900 levels will serve as support for the BIST 100 index. While highlighting a quiet domestic data calendar for tomorrow, they emphasize that US inflation and Middle Eastern developments will be critical to watch.

As the Market Pricing and Data Terminal Manager, I observe that HFT bots are pricing developments in the Strait of Hormuz into the markets within milliseconds. However, the real technical signal lies in the ex-gold and energy current account surplus rising to $3.6 billion. In light of this data, I foresee a short-term stabilization in swap market rate cut expectations, yet volatility is likely to remain elevated as the geopolitical risk premium persists.