Corn Prices Slide as USDA Data Misses Estimates and Climate Shocks Loom

Corn futures contracts closed Thursday with declines of 4 to 6 cents across most contracts, while the CmdtyView national average cash corn price dropped 6 3/4 cents to $4.10 3/4.

USDA Export Sales Fall Short of Expectations

■Old-crop corn export sales in the USDA weekly report for the week of July 9 came in at 314,962 MT, missing the estimated range of 500,000 to 1 MMT. While still more than triple the same week last year, this marked a marketing year low.

■New-crop 2026/27 corn sales were reported at 311,222 MT, on the lower end of the 0.3-1.1 MMT forecast, representing a 6-week low and bringing total new-crop commitments to 6.859 MMT, up 14.5% year-over-year.

Climate Outlook and Global Production Downgrade

■According to NOAA's 7-day quantitative precipitation forecast, much of the Western Corn Belt will remain relatively dry, with only trace amounts expected in MN, IA, NE, MO, and the Dakotas.

■The Eastern Corn Belt is projected to see slightly wetter conditions, with 0.5-1.5 inches of rain anticipated in parts of IL, IN, and OH.

■The IGC cut its 2026/27 global corn production forecast by 4 MMT to 1.306 billion tonnes, citing reduced yields in France due to excessive heat.

Kemal Tekin Note: The volatility in corn markets reflects growing climate-related uncertainties and export instability, which could amplify pressures on commodities amid rising demand in Asia-Pacific economies. Weather developments, particularly in eastern growing regions, will remain a key determinant of near-term price direction.