Silver Breaks Above $70: Banks Diverge on 2026 Outlook as Industrial Demand Wavers

Silver closed the week’s final trading session at $68.99 per ounce, posting a 9.7% gain over the last three sessions and testing the June‑high of $70.0182.

Technical Threshold and Near‑Term Target Zones

■A sustained break above the $70 psychological barrier could open the path to $72.50, $75, and $76.95 levels.

■A move past $77 would set the next upside target at $80.

■On the downside, initial support lies near $67; intensified selling could test the $64‑65.50 band and eventually the $60 area.

Bank Forecasts and Sector‑Specific Risks

■JPMorgan sees a 2026 average price of $70.60, with a potential year‑end dip to $63, citing concerns that solar‑panel manufacturers may cut silver usage by as much as 30%, threatening industrial demand.

■Commerzbank trimmed its 2026‑end forecast from $80 to $67, but expects a rebound to $80 by end‑2027.

■UBS maintains an $80 year‑end 2026 target, warning that weakening industrial demand coupled with rising mine output could cap any further upside.

■Citi keeps its near‑term $75 target, suggesting that robust investor demand could push silver to $90 within the next 6‑12 months.

■Bank of America flags the possibility of silver exceeding $100 if gold’s rally persists, while cautioning that sustaining such levels may be challenging.

Macro‑Economic Drivers and the Inflection Point

■The trajectory of silver will be shaped by the U.S. dollar, Treasury yields, and Federal Reserve policy.

■A slowdown in inflation and fading expectations of further rate hikes could bolster demand for precious metals, lifting silver.

■Conversely, dollar strength and rising real rates may trigger a near‑term correction.

Burak Yalın – Director of Commercial Loans and Central Bank Policies, former banker analysing the squeeze in SME lending, corporate credit growth, and the impact of macro‑prudential measures on banking. The divergent views among major banks on silver highlight the tension between short‑term speculation and long‑term fundamentals. With SME credit tightening and corporate credit expansion slowing, price volatility could directly affect financing costs, making sector‑specific risk management more critical than ever.