Heavy Data Calendar Sets Course for Turkey’s Economy

Turkey’s economic calendar accelerates as the summer months close, steering market participants toward a series of pivotal data releases.

Anticipated Rhythm of Q2 Growth Figures

■August 31: Q2 GDP to be released by TÜİK at 10:00 AM, with consensus forecasting an annual increase of 2.80%.

■Q1 posted a 2.5% growth rate; the upcoming figures will test the sustainability of the expansion momentum.

Export Record and Trade Balance Outlook

■September 3: Trade Minister Ömer Bolat and TIM President Mustafa Gültepe will unveil August trade data.

■July export hit a historic $25.6 billion, a 3% rise, signalling robust external demand.

Inflation and Real Yield Dynamics

■September 3: CPI annual 31.75%, PPI annual 27.83% will be published.

■Real deposit yield reached 1.29% in July; September 8 will see the release of real returns on financial instruments.

Central Bank Policy and Interest Rate Decision

■September 10: CBRT policy board will keep the repo rate at 37% and announce the new interest rate decision.

■September 11: July payments‑balance figures will be disclosed; June current‑account deficit stood at $4.194 billion, with a $1.462 billion surplus excluding gold and energy.

Strategic OVP and Budget Framework

■Early September: Updated OVP will outline growth, inflation, employment and trade targets for 2027‑2029.

■September 15: Treasury‑Finance Ministry to release August budget execution; October 17 the 2027 budget proposal will be presented to the parliament.

Expert Note (Volkan Şen): The packed data calendar will reshape liquidity flows and position management. If Q2 GDP meets the projected 2.80% rise, risk premia may compress, prompting “smart‑money” buying pressure in dark‑pool volumes. Conversely, the 31.75% inflation level keeps real‑yield pressure alive, while a 37% repo rate holds short‑term term‑structure strategies in check. Traders should monitor AKD and clearing‑house data for OVP‑driven sector rotations and currency risk pricing ahead of the upcoming releases.