AA Finans Survey: August Inflation Forecast at 1.86%, Annual Rate to 31.52%

Turkey’s inflation expectations are now projected at 1.86 % for August by AA Finans’s latest survey, easing the monthly rise while trimming the annual rate to 31.52 %.

August Inflation Outlook

■Average forecast: 1.86 %

■Forecast range: 1.25 % – 2.10 %

■Previous month’s monthly increase: 1.78 %

Annual Inflation Trajectory

■July’s actual annual inflation: 31.75 %

■Predicted August decline: 31.52 %

■Year‑end expectation: 29.49 %

Economist Diversity

■Number of participants: 20

■Publication date: September 3

■Collaboration with the Turkish Statistical Institute (TÜİK)

Market Implications

■Reduced uncertainty around consumer prices could influence monetary policy decisions.

■A slight drop in inflation may reshape expectations for the TRY’s volatility.

■Closer alignment with annual targets could keep the Central Bank’s policy rate on a steady path.

Volkan Şen: The modest dip in inflation forecasts may provide markets with clearer signals about the Central Bank’s short‑term rate stance. Yet, the still‑high year‑end target indicates ongoing inflationary pressures, urging investors to reassess their risk appetite.