Fed Minutes: Mild Inflation Relief Holds Rates, Otherwise More Hikes Loom

Fed minutes signaled that unless inflation shows a clear retreat, further rate hikes remain on the table

Inflation’s Stubborn Face

■5.2% yearly CPI held flat for three straight months.

■Core inflation, excluding food and energy, steadied at 4.8%.

■Rising labor costs added 0.3 percentage points to services‑sector price pressure.

Market Reaction and Yield Outlook

■The 10‑year Treasury yield climbed to 4.35%, flirting with 2023’s highs.

■S&P 500 slipped 0.4% after the release; the tech‑heavy Nasdaq fell 0.6%.

■The Dollar Index rallied to 105.2, gaining 0.5% against the euro.

Algo‑Trading Implications

■The Ichimoku cloud turned red, flashing a short‑sell signal.

■The 50‑day MA slipped below the 200‑day MA, hinting at a “death cross.”

■The 61.8% Fibonacci retracement sits at 2,050 points on the S&P 500, marking a key support zone.

Caner Yılmaz: The Fed’s data‑dependent stance suggests that if inflation remains entrenched by structural forces, monetary policy could pivot to a more aggressive trajectory. In algo‑driven frameworks, tightening volatility filters and recalibrating short‑side stop levels are prudent steps.