Fed Rate Hold and US Data Spark Commodity Volatility

The Fed kept its policy rate steady at 3.50%‑3.75%, while U.S. growth momentum slowed, igniting sharp price swings across commodity markets.

Fed Decision Fuels Market Turbulence

The Fed approved the rate decision by a 9‑3 vote; 3 members backed a 25‑basis‑point hike. This internal split pushed long‑term bond yields higher and amplified market uncertainty.

Precious Metals: Gold, Silver, and Platinum Split

Precious metals reacted directly to dollar and bond‑rate movements. Gold and silver faced pressure, whereas platinum and palladium managed modest gains.

■Gold: 0.9% decline per ounce

■Silver: 0.3% drop per ounce

■Platinum: 3.5% rise per ounce

■Palladium: 2.7% increase per ounce

China Manufacturing PMI and Copper Prices

China's manufacturing PMI fell to 49.2 in July, slipping back into contraction territory. The slowdown raised concerns over copper demand, while dwindling inventories in China and the U.S. bolstered prices.

■PMI: 49.2 (decline)

■Shanghai Stocks: 433,458 tons → 69,610 tons

■Copper Price: weekly 2.9% rise

Energy Markets under Geopolitical Strain

A temporary cease‑fire and subsequent flare‑up between the U.S. and Iran drove Brent crude volatility. OPEC+ production guidance and a 7.2 million‑barrel drop in U.S. commercial oil inventories added upward pressure.

■Brent: weekly 4.6% increase

■Natural Gas (BTU): 0.7% decline

■Strategic Reserves: 404.5 million barrels (lowered stock)

Macro Data Surprises and Market Outlook

While the Fed’s inflation target stays above 2%, the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index slipped to 3.7%. These figures pulled the September rate‑hike probability from 81% to 65%.

■PCE YoY Change: 4.1% → 3.7%

■Fed Rate‑Hike Probability: 81% → 65%

■U.S. Q2 Growth: annualized 1.5% vs 2.1% in Q1

Market participants see a reduced short‑term risk appetite after the Fed’s hold and the slowdown in growth momentum. Yet, the split within the policy committee and ongoing geopolitical tensions will keep volatility alive, especially in precious metals and energy. I recommend a cautious stance toward copper and gold, which are experiencing liquidity constraints.