Fitch: Turkey Set to Lead Global Sukuk Market in 2026

Fitch Ratings stated that Turkey will continue to stand out in global sukuk issuances throughout 2026.

Fitch's Assessment

Fitch highlighted that public financing will be largely driven by sukuk, while the private sector is expected to issue when market conditions present opportunities. It warned that geopolitical risks such as the Iran conflict could constrain issuance volumes.

Turkey's Position in the Sukuk Market

■$516 billion total debt instruments, up 9% YoY in the first half of 2026.

■33% of the total is comprised of dollar‑denominated debt.

■Ranks 6th in dollar‑denominated issuance and 5th in the global sukuk market among emerging economies.

■Sukuk's share of total capital‑market debt issuances rose from 8% to 14%.

Geopolitical and ESG Drivers

Fitch expects Turkey's role as host of COP31 and the forthcoming National Green Finance Strategy to boost ESG‑linked sukuk issuances. Nevertheless, escalating regional tensions could dampen investor appetite, raise borrowing costs, and strain market liquidity.

Strategic Takeaways

■Low public debt levels safeguard external financing access during stress periods.

■ESG‑focused sukuk will attract international investors and reinforce Turkey's sustainable‑finance narrative.

■Continuous monitoring of geopolitical risks is essential for optimal issuance timing and pricing.

Hakan Çelik – Director of Fiscal Policy and Public Finance

Turkey's ascent in the sukuk arena presents a strategic opening for both public and private sectors. Yet, volume growth alone is insufficient for sustainable progress; transparency, credit‑rating stability, and ESG compliance are the pillars that will nurture long‑term investor confidence. Managing geopolitical uncertainties, controlling borrowing costs, and preserving external financing access must remain top priorities on the fiscal agenda.