Fitch's Shock 2026 Oil Forecast: Brent May Slip Below $70

Fitch Ratings warned that downward risks remain dominant in its 2026 oil market outlook, suggesting Brent crude could see a sharp decline over the year.

Fitch's 2026 Brent Oil Outlook

Fitch projects Brent at $110 in June 2026 and $100 in July 2026, yet actual prices hovered around $84 for both months. The fourth‑quarter forecast sits at $70 per barrel, incorporating a geopolitical risk premium.

■June 2026: Target $110, actual $84.

■July 2026: Target $100, actual $84.

■Q4 2026: Forecast $70 per barrel, includes risk premium.

Reopening of the Strait of Hormuz and Supply Dynamics

The reopening of the Strait of Hormuz is expected to boost global supply by roughly 5%, keeping oil inventories at comfortable levels. Fitch anticipates a new supply surplus beginning in September.

■Reopening could lift supply by 5%.

■Global oil inventories sit at 12% above 2025 levels.

■Anticipated supply surplus from September onward.

Geopolitical Risk Premium and Price Support

Rapid recovery of Middle‑East production adds a $5‑7 risk premium, while ongoing geopolitical uncertainty could buttress prices by about $10.

■Middle‑East production rebound adds a $5‑7 risk premium.

■Geopolitical uncertainty may support prices by $10.

Market Participants' Strategic Moves

Investors and major energy firms are reshaping their positions in response to Fitch’s low‑price outlook. Hedge funds are trimming Brent exposure, while majors rebalance futures around $90.

■Hedge funds trimming Brent exposure by 15%.

■Major energy majors rebalancing futures around $90.

Zeynep Turan: Fitch’s bearish oil scenario could directly affect consumer loan and mortgage rates in Turkey. Lower oil prices may ease inflationary pressures, offering a window for interest‑rate relief. Yet the persistent geopolitical risk premium signals a volatile market, urging a cautious stance in credit portfolios.