Turkey’s 2026 Inflation Forecast Climbs to 28%, Tax Leaders Revealed

The Central Bank of Turkey’s inflation forecast for 2026 has been raised to 28%, sending markets into a new wave of uncertainty.

2026 Inflation Target Rises to 28%

■Central Bank Governor Fatih Karahan set the year‑end 2026 inflation forecast at 28%.

■The 2027 target remains unchanged, while interim targets stay at 24% for 2026 and 15% for 2027.

■Food inflation forecast is set at 28.5%.

■Karahan noted a slowdown in the deflationary process and expects the demand‑driven deflationary trend to continue.

Tax Titans: Corporate and Individual Leaders

■Ziraat Bank topped the corporate tax list with 70 billion 394 million 682 thousand TL in tax collection.

■The top individual taxpayers were Selçuk Bayraktar (Baykar Board Chair), Haluk Bayraktar (General Manager) and Rahmi Koç (Koç Holding Chair).

■The special consumption tax (ÖTV) on motor vehicles will be zeroed until the end of August, then increased gradually from September.

Customs Union and EU Dialogue

■President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan set a trade volume target of $5 billion with Austria.

■He emphasized that updates to the Customs Union and visa‑free dialogue would benefit all parties.

U.S. Inflation Snapshot

■Core inflation in July fell, while headline inflation slowed to its slowest pace since March 2021.

■This may ease the Fed’s pressure to raise rates.

ÖTV and Motor Regulations

■After the ÖTV removal, the per‑liter price fell to 7.74 TL.

■The new rule excludes the “eşel mobil sistemi” motor from ÖTV.

Markets are re‑assessing risk premiums amid the Central Bank’s higher inflation outlook. The rise in food prices could dampen real consumer demand and exert long‑term pressure on interest rates.