Gold Surges Past 6,200 Lira: Geopolitical Risks and Fed Uncertainty Shape Markets

Gram gold climbed to the 6.209 lira level, surpassing a new psychological threshold amid an environment of dampened global risk appetite. The recovery in ounce prices and safe-haven demand driven by geopolitical tensions have led gold to close the day with a 0.2% increase, causing quarter gold to trade at 10,160 lira and Republican gold at 40,453 lira.

Geopolitical Risk Premium on the Rise

■US President Donald Trump's ultimatum regarding negotiations with Iran, labeling the process the "last chance," has triggered concerns over the potential closure of the Strait of Hormuz and a rise in oil prices, putting pressure on commodity markets.

■Trump's statements regarding potential attack scenarios and the diplomatic efforts by Gulf countries are sustaining uncertainty over asset prices, while supporting ounce gold at the $4,062 level.

■The lack of concrete results between Iran and the US continues to curb investor risk appetite, triggering safe-haven buying.

Fed and Data Calendar Uncertainty

■Although 3 members voting for a rate hike in the Fed meeting minutes kept hawkish expectations alive, growth coming in below expectations and the slowdown in PCE data have weakened these expectations.

■Markets continue to price in a single rate hike by the Fed by the end of the year, while the non-farm payrolls data to be announced on Friday is predicted to be critical for the bank's rate path.

■Today, the real effective exchange rate domestically, and the US foreign trade balance and JOLTS job openings data abroad will be monitored.

From a technical perspective, the rise in gram gold can be seen as a quest for sustainability above short-term moving averages. However, the sudden volatility caused by geopolitical news flow can frequently trigger stop-loss levels in algo-trading strategies. We see the 6.200 support acting as a Fib 0.618 retracement, but resistance levels at the upper band of the Ichimoku cloud will be critical at the close.