Gold Under Pressure: Inflation Data and Geopolitics Drag Prices Lower

Gold prices started the day with a downward trend as global markets digested the latest US inflation data and geopolitical developments in the Strait of Hormuz. Following the decline in spot gold, domestic gram gold fell to 6,724 liras in early trading.

Fed Expectations and the Retreat in Bond Yields

US consumer inflation (CPI) for July rose by 0.1% monthly and 3.4% annually, matching market expectations and reshaping macroeconomic forecasts. This data, reinforcing the view that inflation is back on a cooling path, led to key adjustments in the bond market:

■The US 10-year Treasury yield fell by 2 basis points to 4.68%.

■The US Dollar Index (DXY) maintained its strength, trading at the 100 level with a 0.1% daily gain.

■Spot gold slid 0.7% to $4,379 per ounce, pressured by the resilient greenback and high bond yields.

Geopolitical Chess in the Strait of Hormuz and Trump's Stance

Geopolitical headlines continue to dictate market sentiment. Reports of a 60-day ceasefire extension between the US and Iran under the Islamabad Accord have added a layer of complexity to risk appetite:

■US President Donald Trump stated that the US has "total control" over the Strait of Hormuz, describing the blockade as a "wall of steel."

■In the domestic market, quarter gold is trading at 11,039 liras, while Republic gold is priced at 43,953 liras.

■Investors are closely monitoring the upcoming CBRT Inflation Report and current account balance data for further domestic cues.

This minor pullback in gold prices indicates profit-taking by "smart money," as confirmed by our market depth and order book analysis. Although bond yields ticked lower, HFT algorithms front-ran the resilient DXY, putting short-term pressure on spot gold. Looking at dark pool liquidity blocks, we see massive buy orders clustered around the $4,350 level. This suggests that institutional players are treating these dips as accumulation zones rather than a structural trend reversal.