HSBC Forecasts End‑Year 2026 Bull Run in Turkish Stocks

HSBC’s August 4 2026 report highlights a 5% outperformance of the Turkish market since New Year and signals a lasting upward trend from the third quarter of 2026.

Middle‑East Tensions and Istanbul’s Tight Trading Band

The Borsa Istanbul has traded within a ±1.5% band amid Middle‑East conflicts, exhibiting a jittery yet contained market.

Oil Prices and the Central Bank’s Repo Rate

Rising oil prices have pushed inflation expectations up by 2.3%, prompting the Central Bank of Turkey (CBT) to keep the weekly repo rate at 37%.

Interest‑Rate Outlook: Signals for September

■CBT economists expect the possibility of rate cuts in September if the positive economic outlook persists.

■The monetary easing cycle is anticipated to be delayed by roughly two months compared to earlier forecasts.

End‑Year 2026: A Persistent Bullish Trend

HSBC predicts the market will stay in a tight band for the coming months but foresees a sustainable rally from Q4 2026 into 2027.

Markets, despite the 5% outperformance since the start of 2025, are poised for a long‑term recovery under strategic rate adjustments. Investors should focus on the enduring bullish trend in Borsa Istanbul amid volatility.