Oil Crisis: IMF Warns 'Buffer May Be Gone by Next Shock' - Turkey's Energy Risk

IMF calculates that the Middle East war has reduced global oil supply by over 1.1 billion barrels. Brent crude has surged to $85.65, posing a direct threat to Turkey's vulnerable current account balance. OPEC+ production increases alongside declining demand have been labeled as 'buffer depletion' by IMF economists. Dr. Aslıhan Demir warns that the TCMB may tighten its interest rate easing path.

'Are markets prepared for this? The duration and depth of the Hürmüz Strait crisis could push Turkey's energy costs up by tens of billions more.'