Iran’s New Security Chief Threatens to Target Neighbors Joining U.S. Economic War

Mohsen Rezaei, Iran’s newly appointed head of the Supreme National Security Council, warned that neighbors aligning with the U.S. economic war would be deemed enemies, injecting fresh uncertainty into regional trade dynamics.

HORMUZ: A New Strategic Threat

Rezaei claimed Iran would target alternative oil‑shipping routes if neighboring countries joined the U.S. “economic war,” highlighting the strategic significance of the Strait of Hormuz.

■Security Network: Iran plans a $15‑20 billion investment to develop alternative routes.

■Supply Chain: The sector could affect $1.5 trillion worth of oil flows in 2024 by up to 30 %.

■Transit Cost: Operating costs for alternative routes may exceed current $3,500 USD/BOE levels.

Neighboring States: Stability or Adversaries?

Rezaei labeled countries collaborating with the U.S. as enemies, threatening to target their commercial interests.

■Turkey: In 2023, $15 billion of imports passed through Iran, representing 10 % of its total.

■Saudi Arabia: Building new logistics networks to balance $200 billion of regional oil flow.

■Kuwait: Planning a $5 billion energy contract for 2024.

U.S. Economic War: Short‑Term Impacts

Rezaei’s warnings emerged as a response to the U.S. imposing $2 trillion in energy and trade restrictions.

■Market Volatility: Brent and WTI prices spiked 1‑2 % within 3‑4 days.

■Corporate Sentiment: Shares of Shell, BP, and TotalEnergies fell 0.5‑1.0 %.

■Risk‑On/Risk‑Off: Investors re‑shaped a $50 billion cash flow toward alternative routes.

Long‑Term Energy Market Scenarios

Should Iran activate alternative routes, global supply‑demand dynamics and geopolitical risk profiles may shift.

■Supply Increase: By 2025, an additional 5% of oil flow via new routes is expected.

■Price Stability: Rapid adaptation could reduce price volatility by 2%.

■Investment Flow: $10 billion in infrastructure investment may heighten regional competition.

Rezaei’s statements introduce short‑term uncertainty in global energy markets, but long‑term developments may reshape the geopolitical balance as alternative logistics networks emerge. Market participants should closely monitor the evolving risk profile of flows through the Strait of Hormuz.