May Foreign Trade Indices: Value Shock, Volume Blow

Turkey's foreign trade indices showed double‑digit gains in unit values in May while the volume side suffered a sharp contraction.

Export Unit Value: Fuel and Raw Materials Spike

■Export unit value index rose 14.2% versus the same month last year.

■By sector: food‑beverage‑tobacco +8.8%, raw materials (ex‑fuel) +11.3%, fuels +52.5%, manufacturing (ex‑food‑beverage‑tobacco) +12%.

Import Unit Value: Matching Percent Increase Keeps Balance

■Import unit value index also climbed 14.2% year‑on‑year.

■Breakdown: food‑beverage‑tobacco ‑2.4%, fuels +49%, raw materials (ex‑fuel) +4.3%, manufacturing (ex‑food‑beverage‑tobacco) +6.4%.

Volume Indexes: Depth of the Decline

■Export volume index fell 20.8% compared with the prior year.

■Food‑beverage‑tobacco ‑16%, raw materials (ex‑fuel) ‑19.9%, fuels ‑20.6%, manufacturing (ex‑food‑beverage‑tobacco) ‑21.4%.

■Import volume index dropped 21.8% year‑on‑year.

■Food‑beverage‑tobacco ‑6.2%, raw materials (ex‑fuel) ‑6.9%, fuels ‑3.8%, manufacturing (ex‑food‑beverage‑tobago) ‑23.1%.

Seasonally Adjusted Series: Monthly Dip, Annual Improvement

■Seasonally and calendar‑adjusted export volume index was 146 in April, rose 1.2% to 147.7 in May.

■Calendar‑adjusted series: May 2025 at 163.2, May 2026 down 5.5% to 154.1.

■The same adjustment for import volume: April 123.4, May down 6% to 116.

■Calendar‑adjusted import volume: May 2025 133.8, May 2026 down 10% to 120.3.

Trade Balance Index: A Steady Poise

■The trade‑balance index, calculated as export unit value divided by import unit value, stood at 89.5 in May 2025.

■In May 2026 it edged up 0.1 point to 89.6.

May’s data reveal that the fuel‑driven surge in unit values was largely offset by a broad‑based volume contraction, leaving the trade‑balance index virtually flat. This near‑stagnation signals that while Turkey maintains price competitiveness, it faces structural headwinds in quantities—a dynamic that could push up import costs and constrain export revenues, exerting upward pressure on the current‑account gap. Policymakers will need to revisit the price‑volume mix to restore a healthier external equilibrium.