OPEC’s July Production Surge Reshapes Global Oil Markets

The OPEC monthly oil market report for July highlights a sharp production surge, led by Iraq, signaling a shift in the global oil balance.

Record Surge in Iraq

Iraq boosted daily output by 665,000 barrels, reaching 2.621 million barrels.

■Iraq: + 665,000 barrels, total 2.621 million barrels.

■Saudi Arabia: + 590,000 barrels, total 7.352 million barrels.

■Kuwait: + 393,000 barrels, total 1.845 million barrels.

Production Declines in Key Producers

Nigeria and the United Arab Emirates (UAE) saw reductions in output.

■Nigeria: - 37,000 barrels, new total 1.546 million barrels.

■United Arab Emirates: - 30,000 barrels, new total 3.780 million barrels.

OPEC and OPEC+ Aggregate Output

OPEC’s daily crude production rose by 1.659 million barrels to 23.632 million barrels in July; OPEC+ total output increased by 1.424 million barrels to 37.655 million barrels.

■OPEC: + 1.659 million barrels, new total 23.632 million barrels.

■OPEC+: + 1.424 million barrels, new total 37.655 million barrels.

Dual Revision of Demand Outlook

OPEC lowered its demand growth forecast for this year while raising the outlook for next year.

■2026 demand: + 580,000 barrels per day, total 105.740 million barrels.

■Non‑OECD: + 610,000 barrels, 59.820 million barrels.

■OECD: - 40,000 barrels, 45.910 million barrels.

■2027 demand: + 2.160 million barrels, total 107.900 million barrels.

The surge in OPEC output, driven primarily by Iraq’s aggressive ramp‑up, eases supply tightness and exerts downward pressure on crude prices. Yet the downward revision of 2026 demand growth and the upward revision for 2027 indicate a more nuanced market, where price volatility may rise and central banks will need to reassess energy‑price risk. Investors should monitor OPEC+ quota compliance and geopolitical developments closely, integrating them into pricing models.