SAF Prices Surge 10% to $1,817 per Ton

Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF) prices have leapt to $1,817 per ton, roughly five times the cost of conventional jet fuel.

Strait Tensions and Regulatory Push as Price Catalysts

Following maritime disruptions in the Hormuz Strait, conventional jet fuel prices rose; concurrently, the 2025 mandates by the UK and the EU for a 2% SAF blend have amplified demand.

Price Landscape Across SAF Variants

■HEFA‑based SAF: Average $1,817/ton

■Biological SAF (waste feedstock): Average $3,399/ton

■Synthetic e‑SAF (hydrogen + CO₂): Average $5,015/ton

Deepening Global Supply‑Demand Gap

Global SAF production reached 1.9 million tons in 2025, covering merely %0.6 of worldwide jet fuel demand. Airlines' push for higher SAF usage has exposed a significant supply shortfall.

Long‑Term Price Outlook and Investment Risk

BloombergNEF projects that expanding blending mandates, heightened competition for feedstock from the road‑transport sector, and slower capacity growth relative to demand will keep SAF prices on an upward trajectory. This creates both an opportunity and volatility risk for investors with exposure to SAF in their energy portfolios.

Expert Note – Zeynep Kaya

The sharp rise in SAF prices reflects not only environmental policy pressure but also a confluence of feedstock scarcity and regulatory tightening. Institutions managing balance sheets should cap SAF exposure at a modest share (e.g., 5‑10%) to hedge against price swings, while simultaneously allocating capital to long‑term sustainable energy projects to balance risk‑return dynamics.