Turkey’s Mortgage Burden Doubles in 13 Years, Reaching Record Highs

Mortgage installments have jumped from roughly 55% of a teacher’s salary in 2013 to an unprecedented 132% in 2026 – marking a historic tipping point for wage‑earners.

The 13‑Year Trajectory of Mortgage Burden

■2013: Avg. 100 m² home ₺141,130, teacher salary ₺2,469 → 57.2 months of salary.

■2026: Avg. 100 m² home ₺5,189,000, teacher salary ₺83,254 → 62.0 months of salary.

■Mortgage payment: ₺1,357 (≈55% of salary) in 2013 vs ₺109,543 (≈132% of salary) in 2026.

Shock Waves in the Salary‑to‑Mortgage Ratio

■2018: Ratio spikes to 92%.

■2020: Low‑rate environment pulls it back to 66%.

■2022‑2024: Peaks between 128%‑159%, staying near the top.

■2026: Slight relief to 131.6%.

Accessibility Crisis in the Metropolises

■Istanbul: 100 m² home equated to 97.6 teacher salaries (2013) → 104.9 salaries (2026).

■Corresponding payment ratios: 94% in 2013, soaring to 258% by 2023.

■Average dwelling size shrank 20%, with 75 m² units now typical.

Policy and Market Dynamics – What the Numbers Reveal

■CBRT kept policy rates low (≈0.69%) until 2020, then lifted them to 1.45% during 2022‑2024.

■Inflation persistently above 70%, inflating real borrowing costs.

■Mortgage access for fixed‑income households fell by over 70%.

■Credit risk premiums rose, curbing banks’ willingness to extend new loans.

■Construction sector and ancillary employment face a double‑edged threat from reduced demand.

This dramatic squeeze in the mortgage market threatens not only household consumption but also the broader construction ecosystem. Monetary tightening combined with structural income‑expenditure imbalances forces policymakers to devise a suite of micro‑macro interventions—softening credit conditions in the short run while expanding housing supply and improving income distribution in the long run.