S&P 500's Four-Year Victory and Wall Street's Risky Bet

American stock markets stand on the precipice of a rare historical performance, while investor sentiment morphs into a complex blend of astonishment and appetite. The S&P 500 is poised to deliver annual gains for a fourth consecutive year, marking a bull run seldom seen in market history.

A Historic Rally and the Looming Risk Profile

Market data casts serious doubts on the sustainability of this momentum, while key indicators shape up as follows:

■The S&P 500 index rising for the fourth straight year enters the record books as a statistically extraordinary event.

■Investment strategists point out that risk premiums in current valuations are diminishing, signaling a potential correction on the horizon.

■Uncertainties surrounding macroeconomic data and interest rates are questioning the foundations of this rally.

Wall Street's Double Down on the Momentum

Despite risk warnings, mainstream capital flows are not retreating; instead, they are doubling down on their positions:

■Major investment houses and fund managers on Wall Street are showing a tendency to double their positions, viewing current volatility as an opportunity.

■The weight of technology and growth stocks continues to sustain the market's overall momentum.

■Investors maintain their confidence in the long-term growth story despite short-term volatility.

Behind this market resilience lies not just macroeconomic data, but the revolutionary potential of semiconductor technology. Wall Street's strategy to "double down" is essentially a bet on TSMC's production capacity and the power of ASML's EUV lithography machines. However, the rare earth elements conflict between the US and China is thickening the cloud over these tech stocks (specifically Nvidia and its ecosystem). The slightest disruption in the supply chain could abruptly halt this AI-driven rally. Investors are not just betting on an index, but on the outcome of a global chip war.