Retail Surges as Trade Sales Contract: 4.5% Drop, 11.8% Gain

Trade Sales Decline by 4.5 % YoY

According to data from the Turkish Statistical Institute (TÜİK), June trade sales volume fell 4.5 % year‑on‑year. The decline, driven by a 2.3 % drop in imports and a 1.9 % drop in exports, prevented the sector from reaching 3.4 trillion TL in the first half of the year.

Retail Sector Explodes with 11.8 % Growth

During the same period, retail sales grew 11.8 %. The apparel and e‑commerce subsectors led the rise with 18 % and 22 % increases respectively, signalling a modest recovery in consumer spending.

Macro‑Economic Snapshot

■Consumer Confidence: TÜİK’s “Consumer Confidence” index rose to 92.3 in June, above the yearly average.

■Inflation: Monthly inflation hit 12.2 %, with a yearly rise of 9.8 %.

■Central Bank Policy: The Central Bank of Turkey (TCMB) kept its policy rate at 19.25 %, maintaining its strategy to curb inflation while keeping credit costs balanced.

Why Retail’s Upswing Matters

The surge in retail sales serves as a stabilising signal for the financial system amid declining consumer credit usage and volatile foreign‑exchange rates. It can potentially ease the tightening risk in SME lending, as improved cash flow for small businesses strengthens their balance sheets.

Forward‑Looking Indicators

■Exports: A 1.5 % rise is projected for the second quarter of the year.

■Imports: If exchange rates stabilise, imports may grow 0.8 %.

■Consumer Expenditure: A target of 3.2 % growth is set for the first quarter of 2025.

Kerem Tufan: "The 11.8 % jump in retail sales reflects rising consumer confidence and could signal a short‑term uptick in commercial credit demand. However, high inflation and a steady policy rate will likely temper a rapid rebound in credit activity. Banks should therefore keep lending policies flexible while tightening risk management."