White House Signals on Iran: Global Liquidity Moves as Geopolitical Risks Subside

Global risk appetite is beginning to reshape alongside the latest statement from the White House and the perceived "step back" in Iran policy, as investors start to signal a rotation from safe-haven assets to riskier assets. Market makers are repricing energy prices and emerging market flows based on the potential of this diplomatic traffic to de-escalate regional tensions.

Decline in Volatility in Oil Barrel Prices

The first reaction in commodity markets came as a sharp decline, linked to the easing of regional conflict concerns. The prominent data points are as follows:

■A sharp 3% drop in Brent Crude barrel prices immediately following the statement.

■Short-term profit-taking in Gold prices as safe-haven demand diminishes.

■A narrowing of risk premiums seen in CDS (Credit Default Swap) spreads, particularly for regional countries.

Investor Psychology and the BIST 100 Index

For Turkish markets, this development is evaluated as a critical turning point regarding the reduction of external risks and foreign portfolio inflows. BIST 100, expected to emerge from the shadow of geopolitical risks, gives a signal of positive divergence in technical indicators. Algorithmic trades in the index predict that liquidity will shift towards banking and industrial stocks as risk appetite increases.

Caner Yılmaz: Markets are reading this softening signal as confirmation of a transition from "risk-off" mode to "risk-on" mode. Sustainability above the Ichimoku Cloud on the BIST 100 gains strength with this news flow. However, for the current rally to be sustainable, it is essential to break the resistance at the Fibonacci 1.618 level with significant volume. Our algo-trading models predict that the correlation of emerging markets (EM) with US 10-year bond yields will normalize again as regional tensions decrease.