Trump’s Fed‑Rate Ultimatum: A New Low‑Interest Dilemma

Trump’s recent statement suggests that the United States might be forced to adopt the world’s lowest interest rate, potentially setting a precedent that could ripple through global markets. The claim, which proposes a 0.25% interest rate, could trigger a reevaluation of the FED’s 2023 policy rate of 5.25%.

The New Player in the Interest Rate War: Trump

■Trump’s low‑rate pitch could lead to an $500 billion increase in the U.S. national debt.

■Economists are questioning the long‑term impact of this proposal on the U.S. inflation control.

■FED Chair Jerome Powell has stated that the inflation target must be preserved, sparking a public backlash.

A Ripple in the Global Interest Arena

■While the Eurozone struggles with double‑digit inflation at a 2.5% policy rate, Japan remains near 0%.

■China’s central bank has set a 1.75% policy rate aiming for a new growth target.

■In Istanbul, the TCMB maintains a 4.25% policy rate, anticipating short‑term volatility.

Investor Reactions: A Rapid Turnaround

■The Nasdaq and S&P 500 fell 0.8% due to expectations of rising rates.

■Investors sense regional risk with a 1.2% drop in Germany’s DAX.

■Gold prices climbed to $1,850, positioning the metal as a defensive asset amid low‑rate expectations.

Economic Forecasts: What Could Happen?

■The FED may slow its policy in 2025 with a 0.5% increase.

■The World Bank predicts that global growth could drop to 1.5%.

■Market volatility could reach 15% in equity indices.

Caner Yılmaz: The debate over interest rates will shape the short‑term performance of ETFs and stocks in the BIST 100. Particularly, Technology and Energy sectors will confront high risk with low return expectations in a low‑rate environment. Leveraging Fibonacci retracements and Ichimoku clouds for advanced buy‑sell signals will provide a strategic edge as a market maker.