Economists Admit They're Flying Blind on AI's Economic Impact

Artificial intelligence (AI) has become the biggest concern for economists. Over 200 economists, including 16 Nobel laureates, signed a statement titled 'We Must Act Now,' admitting that the profession cannot predict AI's economic effects. The statement warns that AI could trigger a transformation 'larger than the Industrial Revolution' in just 10 years, but the uncertainty around its risks and opportunities is alarming. NYU Economics Professor and Nobel laureate Michael Spence called for an 'all-hands-on-deck' approach to steer AI in beneficial directions. Stanford University Economics Professor Erik Brynjolfsson developed the 'Canary Dashboard' with ADP Research, tracking AI exposure for 4.6 million workers across 730 occupations. The dashboard shows employment in AI-exposed jobs for 22-25-year-olds shrinking by more than 4% annually. Apollo Global Management's chief economist Torsten Slok argues that the term 'AI exposure' is contested by five different measurement frameworks, making the term's meaning uncertain. 'When someone says a job is 'highly exposed to AI,' the first question should be: Which measure, and what are they measuring?' Slok said. 'We need timely, trusted evidence to understand where AI is creating value and disrupting work.' Brynjolfsson emphasized the urgency: 'We are flying blind into one of the most consequential periods in world history.' > The inability to forecast AI's economic impact means we cannot predict one of the most significant economic transformations ahead. The ECB's monetary policy and global trade wars add to this uncertainty. Markets continue to await AI's long-term economic changes.