ECB's Inflation and Growth Expectations: Eurozone's Economic Outlook

The ECB's Survey of Professional Forecasters provides critical insights into the Eurozone's economic outlook.

Inflation Expectations: HICP and HICPX Projections

■HICP inflation expectations stand at 2.7% for 2026, 2.2% for 2027, and 2.0% for 2028.

■HICPX inflation (excluding energy, food, alcohol, and tobacco) is projected at 2.4% for 2026, 2.2% for 2027, and 2.1% for 2028.

Economic Growth and Unemployment

■Real GDP growth is expected to be 0.6% in 2026, 1.2% in 2027, and 1.3% in 2028.

■Unemployment rate projections are 6.3% for 2026 and 2027, declining to 6.2% in 2028, and 6.1% in the long term.

Burak Güven: The ECB survey indicates progress in inflation control, but downward revisions in growth forecasts heighten stagflation risks. This demands a delicate balance from policymakers. While medium-term inflation expectations remain anchored, geopolitical tensions and energy price volatility could disrupt projections.