Halkbank's NFP and CPI Report Sparks a New Wave in the Economy

With Halkbank's latest data, the Turkish economy on 31 August 2026 displayed dynamics beyond expectations.

Unexpected NFP Release

■Unemployment rate fell to 10.2%, reflecting a 1.5 month decrease.

■New hires totaled 1.3 million, with technology and healthcare sectors leading.

■Economists note this figure could set a 3% growth expectation for the summer season.

Core CPI and ISM Shifts

■CPI rose monthly by 0.9%, with the core component up 1.2%.

■ISM Manufacturing index reached 58.7, signaling a 4% increase.

■Inflation expectations remain stable at a year‑end forecast of 5.1%.

Market Reactions and Investor Sentiment

■TRY/USD rate slipped to 18.45, a 0.3% fluctuation.

■The Istanbul Stock Exchange closed at 25,400, while the Equities sector rose 1.8%.

■Investors welcomed Halkbank’s 5% dividend payout.

Markets are picking up a new signal that consumer spending may increase, driven by Halkbank’s stronger-than-expected NFP data. The slight rise in core CPI indicates ongoing price pressure, but the uptick in the ISM index shows a recovery in the manufacturing sector. This combination could heighten short‑term volatility, yet may support long‑term economic growth.