AA Finance Inflation Outlook: August 2024 Annual Rate Slips to 31.52%

AA Finance’s 20‑economist inflation expectations survey predicts the official August data to show a 31.52 % annual inflation rate, down from 31.75 % in July.

Subtle Shift, Big Message

■August monthly inflation expectation: 1.86 % average, ranging 1.25 %‑2.10 %

■Annual inflation expectation: 31.52 % (vs. 31.75 % in July)

■Year‑end inflation expectation: 29.49 %

■TÜİK’s 1‑month CPI: 1.78 % (July)

Market Outlook

High inflation expectations are nudging banks to adjust their policy stances. The central bank’s pressure on the TL is creating a fine‑tuned balance in HFT bot reactions.

Sustainability and Policies

Economists see the expected decline as a positive signal for the trade deficit and new credit markets, yet currency volatility remains uncertain.

Markets, grappling with high inflation expectations in the first half of the year, view the modest August dip as slightly easing risk sentiment. The Central Bank is expected to respond with a short‑term interest rate cut to accommodate this decline.