Minister Bolat Presents Q2 2024 Growth Report: Export Surge and Services Lead

Turkey's economy posted a 2.3% annual growth in Q2, with notable improvements in the trade deficit and current account balance.

Q2 Growth Drivers

Minister Bolat attributes the 2.3% GDP rise to a 0.6‑point boost from net goods and services exports and a 2.3‑point lift from private consumption.

■0.6 pts: Net export contribution

■2.3 pts: Private consumption contribution

■0.2 pts: Investment spending contribution

■‑0.2 pts: Negative effect of government spending

Export Performance and Trade Gap Narrowing

The trade deficit narrowed by 8.8% year‑on‑year, while the current‑account deficit fell 7.7%, bringing the current‑account gap to 2.3% of GDP – comfortably below its historical average.

■8.8%: Trade‑deficit reduction

■7.7%: Current‑account‑deficit reduction

■2.3%: Current‑account gap to GDP ratio

Sectoral Value‑Added Breakdown

The services sector led with a 2.1% increase in value‑added, contributing the most to growth. Manufacturing output rose 2.4%, adding 0.5 pts, while agriculture, aided by favorable weather, surged 13.3%, also adding 0.5 pts. Construction, however, contracted 1.9%.

■2.1%: Services value‑added growth

■2.4%: Manufacturing output increase

■13.3%: Agriculture production jump

■‑1.9%: Construction sector contraction

Labour Market Snapshot

Unemployment fell to 8.1% in July 2024, marking the first sub‑10% reading in 39 consecutive months.

■8.1%: July unemployment rate

■39 months: Duration of sub‑10% unemployment

Policy Outlook and Year‑End Targets

Bolat emphasized the economy’s resilience amid “heightened global geopolitical risks,” setting year‑end targets of $282 billion in goods exports and $410 billion in total exports.

■$282 bn: Year‑end goods‑export goal

■$410 bn: Year‑end total‑export goal

Turkey’s Q2 performance signals macro‑economic stability, bolstered by a shrinking trade gap and robust services growth despite a volatile geopolitical backdrop. The negative impact of public spending and the contraction in construction underscore the need for accelerated structural reforms. Sustaining investment momentum will be pivotal for maintaining growth continuity.