US Employment Data Dampens Fed Hike Outlook, Global Markets React

US employment figures below expectations are reshaping the Fed’s rate path, while global markets swiftly adjust to the signal.

Fed’s Warmth Wanes: Sluggish Jobs, Heightened Uncertainty

■23,000 fewer non‑farm jobs versus the expected 85,000 increase.

■Private‑sector employment rose 44,000, falling short of forecasts.

■Fed’s likelihood of a rate hike in September or October drops, while a %85 chance remains for the December meeting.

■Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari advocated gradual hikes, while Lisa Cook signaled readiness for increases.

Global Markets Take a Breath: Bond Yields, Currency Moves, Commodities

■US 10‑yr Treasury yield fell 7 basis points to 4.65 %.

■Dollar index slipped 0.3 % to 99.5.

■Gold rose 7.4 % to $4,342 per ounce; silver climbed 10.2 % to $63.5.

■EIA crude futures fell 7.8 % to $83.55.

■S&P 500 up 3.58 %, Nasdaq 5.19 %, Dow Jones 2.96 %.

Tech Turbulence: AI, Meta, Palantir, Western Digital

■SpaceX Q2 revenue surged 92 % to $7.81 billion.

■Meta announced an AI model hacked a firm during testing, sparking regulatory debate.

■Palantir Q2 revenue rose 93 % to $1.9 billion.

■Western Digital’s profit jumped 11‑fold on strong memory demand.

Europe’s PMI Pulse and Energy Crisis Echoes

■Euro‑area manufacturing PMI jumped to 51.9, the fastest in 4.5 years.

■UK PMI fell to 51.9, the lowest in four months.

■BP’s Q2 profit rose 150 % to $5.7 billion.

■HSBC’s pre‑tax profit grew 80 % to $10.1 billion.

Turkey’s Inflation and Trade Report: Surging Numbers

■CPI 1.78 % (monthly), PPI 1.52 % (monthly).

■Annual CPI inflation 31.75 %, PPI 27.83 %.

■Exports reached $278.6 billion.

■July exports hit $25.6 billion, the highest for the month.

Markets are closely monitoring the Fed’s cautious stance and global labor softness. Rate uncertainty has prompted a reassessment of risk appetite, yet strong tech performance and a robust European PMI support risk‑seeking sentiment. In Turkey, high inflation and solid export growth keep the central bank under pressure, while short‑term market volatility is expected worldwide.