Half a Year into the Iran War, Global Economy Pulls Off a 'Mission Impossible' Act, Trump Family Among the Winners

The first step, as the war began on Feb. 28, sent deep uncertainty into markets, yet after six months it showcased unexpected resilience.

War‑Driven Price Surge: Oil, Aviation and Consumer Costs

■Brent rose from $72 to $120, still up 20%.

■Jet fuel projected to rise 70% over 2025.

■Lufthansa cut 20,000 short‑haul flights; Spirit Airlines ceased operations.

Market Shock: Dow, S&P 500 and Nasdaq

■Dow +19%, S&P 500 +22%, Nasdaq +27%.

■These gains could sustain a fourth straight year if 2026 trends hold.

■IMF report: war‑strain versus AI enthusiasm as opposing forces.

EV Explosion: Sustainability Accelerates

■Global EV sales projected at 29% of total in 2026, up from 25%.

■Singapore +110%, New Zealand +180%, Colombia +300%.

■Southeast Asia and Africa ramping up renewables.

Fertilizer Storm: Food Security at Risk

■Fertilizer prices peaked 44% above pre‑war levels.

■Farmers trimmed usage, jeopardizing next harvest.

■WFP warns of hunger surge.

Trump Portfolio: War’s Lucrative Side

■Powerus’s $90M drone‑interceptor contract, 1789 Capital’s strategic stakes.

■Shares in Lockheed Martin, General Dynamics, Northrop Grumman rise.

■SpaceX and Firehawk Defense secure Pentagon deals worth up to $2B.

Global Supply Chains: Tanker Traffic and Inflation

■Strait of Hormuz tanker flow slows, BDI dips.

■Inflation pressure climbs with energy, food and transport costs.

As Captain Rıza Deniz, I see that energy prices and tanker movement will shape inflation long‑term, while the rapid EV market growth will forge a new balance by reducing oil dependency.