Warsh’s Speech Pressurizes Precious Metals While Black Sea Shipping Concerns Lift Wheat

The U.S. Federal Reserve’s “hawkish” stance, PCE rising 0.2 % and core PCE at 3.3 %, triggered a sharp but temporary surge in gold.

Fed’s Whisper: Gold’s Two‑Fold Turnaround

■Gold: Reached a weekly high of $4,696.8, then ended the week lower.

■Platinum and gold fell 3.0 % and 3.2 % respectively.

■Paladium rose 5.3 %, silver 3.8 %.

■2‑Year Treasury hit 4.35 %, dollar index at 99.7.

Black Sea Bottleneck Fuels Wheat Gains

■Wheat: $7.903 (T+1), up 12.1 %.

■Corn up 5.5 %, soy 3.9 %.

■Rice increased 2.5 %.

■Chinese heat worries and Anatolian drought impact supply.

Energy Volatility: Oil, Gas and Heat

■Brent fell 4.8 %, natural gas rose 4.2 %.

■Temperature above seasonal norms; 15 billion ft³ added to storage.

■Oil prices slipped with Hürmus Strait reopening hopes.

Metals’ Mixed Signals

■Copper declined 0.5 %, tariff uncertainty.

■Zinc up 1.2 %.

■Lead up 0.3 %.

■Aluminum up 0.3 %, nickel up 1.9 %.

Expert Note: Warsh’s “hawkish” messaging pushed short‑term yields and the dollar higher, but market dynamics applied a short‑term squeeze on gold. Shipping risks in the Black Sea amplified supply concerns for grain, pushing prices up. Energy prices reflect a blend of geopolitical and weather factors, complicating long‑term forecasts.