Gold Rebounds Ahead of Fed Minutes: Focus Shifts to Yields and Hormuz Tensions

Global markets are intensely focused on the Federal Reserve's July meeting minutes, while gold prices have rebounded from sharp losses, supported by a decline in US Treasury yields. Both macroeconomic data and geopolitical risks centered around the Strait of Hormuz continue to drive volatility across commodity markets.

Interest Rate Pricing Ahead of the Fed Minutes

Investors are awaiting the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) minutes scheduled for release at 18:00 TRT, seeking clearer signals on the central bank's future monetary path. The minutes will be closely scrutinized for arguments from hawkish members and potential policy divisions.

■According to CME FedWatch data, markets price in a 64% probability of interest rates remaining unchanged in September.

■The probability of a rate hike for the same period stands at 36%.

■Weak economic data coming from the US has softened aggressive tightening expectations, providing a supportive backdrop for gold.

Technical Thresholds: The Battle Over $4,390 Resistance

The technical outlook for the precious metal points to a consolidation within key pivot zones. According to analysis by Lukman Otunuga, Head of Market Research at FXTM, critical levels must be monitored closely:

■A sustained break above $4,390 could pave the way for a fresh rally toward $4,505.

■On the downside, the $4,300 level remains the most critical support line.

■Breaching this support could intensify selling pressure, bringing $4,200 and $4,150 targets into play.

Geopolitical Risk Premiums in the Strait of Hormuz and Crude Oil

Alongside monetary policy, geopolitical risks are directly impacting commodity markets. US President Donald Trump's statements regarding the Strait of Hormuz remaining open contrast with claims from Iran, keeping tensions high in the vital energy corridor. Crude oil prices, rising for a fourth consecutive session, threaten to revive global inflationary pressures and potentially delay central banks' rate-cutting cycles.

Meanwhile, mixed pricing was observed in other precious metals. Spot silver fell 0.4% to $63.03 per ounce, while platinum rose 0.5% to $1,720.10. Palladium remained flat around $1,289.45.

Rising energy costs and commodity price volatility exert direct pressure on heavy industry and automotive supply chains. Specifically, platinum's rise to $1,720.10 and silver's positioning at $63.03 directly affect input costs for emission control systems and next-generation EV battery components. The Fed's rate trajectory and supply security risks in the Strait of Hormuz will remain the primary forces shaping global logistics and manufacturing margins. Ufuk Tepe.