US Forces Nations to Choose Sides in AI Race

Washington is turning its threat to force countries into a single front in the AI rivalry with China into a concrete step.

Pax Silica's New Dynamics: Strategic Lock on Resources

The United States, through its Pax Silica initiative launched last year, aims to secure supply chains for AI models, semiconductor chips, and critical minerals. In this context, a draft letter prepared for 35 nations emphasizes the impossibility of "dual membership" and highlights:

■Member states signing the Pax Silica declaration will gain joint access to critical mineral and semiconductor investments.

■Countries maintaining ties with China's competing framework face the risk of exclusion from the US‑led AI coalition.

■The letter delivers a diplomatic warning: "Dual membership makes you a partner to none."

China's World AI Cooperation Organization: Open‑Weight Model

Under Xi Jinping, China has launched the "World Artificial Intelligence Cooperation Organization" (WAICO) to promote open‑weight AI systems as a global standard. This initiative directly challenges US‑centric closed‑ecosystem AI firms such as OpenAI and Anthropic.

■WAICO seeks to expand China's open‑weight AI models into international markets, increasing its market share.

■The United States frames this approach as a threat to security and economic sovereignty.

Kazakhstan's Dual Alignment: A Strategic Alarm

Kazakhstan, rich in critical mineral reserves (e.g., rare earth elements), has joined both Pax Silica and China's WAICO, prompting Washington to warn that "being part of everything is being part of nothing."

■Kazakhstan serves as a strategic bridge for critical minerals in Central Asia.

■The US aims to integrate the country into its network to limit China's mineral access.

Global Supply Chains and Investment Flows Impacted

The diplomatic escalation of the US‑China AI race will steer both semiconductor markets and critical mineral trade.

■Investors may tilt toward AI‑focused projects in countries aligned with Pax Silica and abstaining from China's framework.

■Market volatility could spike in short‑term fluctuations for semiconductor and rare earth equities.

■Political risk premiums are likely to rise as tensions between the two blocs intensify.

Markets are anticipating a restructuring of technology‑driven supply chains as the US pushes this pressure policy. The semiconductor and critical mineral sectors will gain strategic priority, reshaping portfolio allocations. While China's open‑weight AI model may eventually push for standardization, the short‑term volatility driven by US‑China tensions will elevate risk premiums. This dynamic emerges as a new parameter in both regional and global risk management.